International Country Bets Based on Currency Instability

Frankfurt am Main

Economists tend to attribute divergent stock-market performance around the world to a variety of factors, including idiosyncrasies of particular countries that require research and skill to evaluate and often cannot be quantified. David will show that there is one easily-missed but universal factor that is straightforward and highly influential: namely, frequent changes in currency values. He will demonstrate that the degree of currency instability around the world in recent decades is high enough to swamp other factors in determining how stock markets rank. Finally, David will derive a simple investment strategy from the predictive content of the relationship.