CFA Lecture

Truth and Deception Analysis - Techniques for better decision making


A key part of investment decision-making is an evaluation of the quality of management teams of a business. Overwhelmingly, firms' analysis of management relies on gut-level reactions to a person, or on several learned heuristics. In this presentation, Jason A. Voss, CFA, CEO of AIM Consulting, LLC shares the insights emerging from scientific studies that aid in qualitative analysis. These include the things missing from most firms' work, for example:  

1. Scientifically-based techniques, rather than heuristics.
2. Behavioral insights that answer the question: Who am I investing with?
3. The level of deceptiveness or truthfulness of an executive or of a business report (e.g. press release, quarterly, or annual report)
4. A way of directing the precious attention of your research team to the problematic firms in your portfolio.